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Analyst at Virtuse win polls in EUA price forecast

Analyst at Virtuse win polls in EUA price forecast


Virtuse Group has the most accurate forecasts for EU allowances. That is according to the quarterly analyst survey by Carbon Pulse conducted in October 2016 and June 2017. 


Analysts at Virtuse, headed by Robert Averianov, were closest to the actual prices with the 3Q 2017 forecasts of €6.30 per ton, and with the end-2016 forecast of €6.90. “The Dec-17s ended last year at €6.57 following a sharp rise during the quiet holiday period, which market watchers attributed to speculative buying amid low liquidity.  It meant analysts at Virtuse were closest to the actual price with their end-2016 forecast of €6.90 in the last poll,” says Mike Szabo of Carbon Pulse.

The London-based online service dedicated to providing in-depth news and intelligence about carbon pricing initiatives, with strong focus on emissions trading markets regularly runs an unscientific poll of major analyst. Among them are experts from renowned institutions such as Bloomberg, Tomson Reuters, or Commerzbank.

Below is the table of the analysts’ individual forecasts for front-year EUA process, all of which are reported in €/ton. 

 

End 2016

Q3 2017

Bloomberg

5.50

5.50

Commerzbank

5.50

5.50

Energy Aspects

4.50

4.50

Engie Glbl Mkts

5.00

5.30

HSE

5.50

N/A

ICIS Tschach

6.00

N/A

MKonline

5.50

6.00

Nomisma Energia

5.20

5.80

Thomson Reuters

5.60

5.30

Vertis

N/A

5.50

Virtuse

6.90

6.30

Average

5.50

5.50

Median

5.50

5.50

ACTUAL PRICE

6.57

7.07

Source: Carbon Pulse





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